"The Uncertain Physics of Ambitious Climate Mitigation: can a warming of 1.5°C be avoided?" by Myles Allen (Oxford)

Friday 23 Nov 2018, 11:00 → 12:00 Europe/Amsterdam

H331 (Nikhef)

The publication of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C has sparked renewed interest in ambitious climate mitigation pathways, but our understanding of how the climate system may respond to rapidly declining emissions is still in its infancy (apart from occasional short-lived recessions, we have direct observations only of the response to increasing emissions). I will explain why we have some confidence that past emissions do not commit us to 1.5°C, despite the long-term adjustment of the deep oceans, and discuss the origins of recent revisions to the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C. I will discuss some illustrative socio-economic scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C, and argue that achieving these ambitious climate goals will require a much closer integration of physical climate science with climate change economics under a mitigation regime that is continually adapting to new information.